Home > Power, Rainfall > IMD releases its 1st forecast for 2010 South-west monsoon

IMD releases its 1st forecast for 2010 South-west monsoon

After a drought in 2009, the Indian subcontinent is likely to witness a normal rainfall in 2010. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its 2010 June-September rainfall forecast at 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA of seasonal rainfall across India is 89 cm, which is the rainfall averaged during the monsoon seasons (June to September) during 1941-90.

Last year, out of the 511 meteorological districts for which data is available, 42% of the districts received excess/normal rainfall and the remaining 58% received deficient/scanty rainfall during the season. This led to a poor kharif crop production and hit the hydel power generation as water reservoirs were not replenished adequately.

The IMD categorises rainfall into various sub-sections:

  • Drought — rainfall less than 90% of the LPA
  • Below normal monsoon — rainfall between 90-96% of the LPA
  • Near normal monsoon — rainfall between 96-104% of the LPA
  • Above normal monsoon — rainfall between 104-110% of the LPA
  • Excess monsoon — rainfall more than 110% of the LPA.

It must be noted that the besides actual precipitation, the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall also plays a vital role. While the first long-range forecast for the south-west monsoon season (June-September) rainfall predicts normal rainfall, the forecast update to be issued in June would enable a better assessment of the rains on the growth of the economy as analysts are cautious because the long-trend forecast has not been reliable at many times. For a graphic on India’s monsoon forecast vs actual rain, click here.

If the first forecast by the IMD comes true, then it would result in a rebound for the farm output after last year’s drought, which resulted in a surge in inflation. Food price inflation stood at 17.7% as on April 10, 2010 vis-à-vis year-ago levels.

Categories: Power, Rainfall
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  1. June 28, 2010 at 9:32 am

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