IMD revises 2010 monsoon forecast upwards

According to the latest forecast of IMD, rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2010 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of 4%.

The agency had in its 1st forecast for 2010 south-west monsoon had predicted normal rains at 98% of the LPA, covered in my earlier article. It has revised this forecast upwards to 102% of LPA.

A look at the rainfall during 1-24 June indicates a not-so-good picture. Rains across India were 11% below the LPA. While north-east India accounted for the highest rainfall, its deviation from LPA was at -22%. Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over nine, normal over 11 and deficient /scanty over 16 sub-divisions.

With the revision in forecast of monsoon rains–a pivotal in farm output and economic growth– has raised the prospects of good harvest and a possibility of a curtailment in flaring inflation. Higher rainfall will also augur well for hydel power generation, which has been  declining for the last 2 years.