Home > Rainfall > Normal Rainfall in 2011: Forecasts IMD

Normal Rainfall in 2011: Forecasts IMD

If the first forecast by the IMD comes true, then it is expected to give a push to the economic growth as rainfall has direct and indirect impact on several industries in the economy. These include, food grains, cash crops, agricultural inputs such as fertilisers, pesticides & hybrid seeds. Industries such as tractors, consumer durables, FMCG, are some of the indirect beneficiaries of a good monsoon.In India, south-west monsoon is the principal rainy season except in Jammu & Kashmir and Tamil Nadu. The monsoon comprises of four months ranging from June to September. The country receives about 80% of its total annual rainfall during these months.

Average rainfall in India during this season is measured as a Long Period Average (LPA).  LPA is average rainfall received for the period 1951-2000 which stands at 89 cm. 

The IMD categorises rainfall into various sub-sections:

  • Drought — rainfall less than 90% of the LPA
  • Below normal monsoon — rainfall between 90-96% of the LPA
  • Near normal monsoon — rainfall between 96-104% of the LPA
  • Above normal monsoon — rainfall between 104-110% of the LPA
  • Excess monsoon — rainfall more than 110% of the LPA.

IMD’s long range forecast for the 2011 south-west monsoon season is most likely to be Normal (96-104% of LPA). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%.

IMD updates the above forecast in June 2011 as a part of the second stage forecast. However, it must be noted that it is too soon to predict impact of this year’s rain on the economy. Also, analysts are cautious because the long-trend forecast has not been reliable at many times.

A significant portion of India’s economy depends on agriculture which is largely controlled by rainfall. Small variations in the monsoon onset, in the spatio-temporal variability during the season and in the seasonal mean rainfall have the potential to impact economic development.

If the first forecast by the IMD comes true, then it is expected to give a push to the economic growth as rainfall has direct and indirect impact on several industries in the economy. These include, food grains, cash crops, agricultural inputs such as fertilisers, pesticides & hybrid seeds. Industries such as tractors, consumer durables, FMCG, are some of the indirect beneficiaries of a good monsoon.

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