Normal Rainfall in 2011: Forecasts IMD

If the first forecast by the IMD comes true, then it is expected to give a push to the economic growth as rainfall has direct and indirect impact on several industries in the economy. These include, food grains, cash crops, agricultural inputs such as fertilisers, pesticides & hybrid seeds. Industries such as tractors, consumer durables, FMCG, are some of the indirect beneficiaries of a good monsoon.

Impact of Monsoon 2010 on Indian Industries

After the drought in 2009, close to 85% of the Indian subcontinent received excess/normal rainfall during the current monsoon season (between June 1 and August 4, 2010). Rainfall has been only 2% below the long period average (LPA) during this time. The LPA of seasonal rainfall across India is 89cm, which is the rainfall averaged during the monsoon seasons (June to September) during 1941-90.

Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, rainfall has been excess in 11, normal in 20 and deficient in five sub-divisions. However, besides the actual rainfall, its spatio-temporal distribution also makes a difference and can paint a different picture from the LPA. This spatio-temporal distribution criteria requires that rainfall should be well spread across the geographical area of the country and even across the monsoon period. In the current monsoon season, rainfall has been well distributed across regions and the monsoon period.

The southwest monsoon is important for India as about 60% of the country’s farm-lands are rain-fed and agriculture accounts for a fifth of the GDP. More than half of the workforce in the country is employed in this sector. Thus, monsoon has both direct and indirect impact on various sections of the economy.

Direct Impact

Monsoon rains 2010 deviate 10% below normal: Impact on Industries

The progress of the south-west monsoon has been quite good in the last week of June and first week of July 2010. Rainfall during 1 June-7 July stood at 204.0 mm, 10% below normal. This is good progress considering -22% deviation from normal until 24 June 2010.

Actual rainfall has been scanty in only one region — East Uttar Pradesh (-67%) and deficient in 10 regions of India. Mainly parts of the central belt, covering MP, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar & West Bengal.

Details of the rainfall distribution are given by IMD.

Impact of the monsoon till 7 July on Indian Industries….

IMD revises 2010 monsoon forecast upwards

According to the latest forecast of IMD, rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2010 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of 4%.

The agency had in its 1st forecast for 2010 south-west monsoon had predicted normal rains at 98% of the LPA, covered in my earlier article. It has revised this forecast upwards to 102% of LPA.

A look at the rainfall during 1-24 June indicates a not-so-good picture.

Advance of South-West Monsoon in India

The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole during this year’s monsoon from 1-17 June has been 3% below the Long Period Average (LPA).

Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 11, normal over 12 and deficient /scanty over 13 subdivisions of the country.

Distribution of Rainfall across India:

IMD releases its 1st forecast for 2010 South-west monsoon

After a drought in 2009, the Indian subcontinent is likely to witness a normal rainfall in 2010. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its 2010 June-September rainfall forecast at 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA of seasonal rainfall across India is 89 cm, which is the rainfall averaged during the monsoon seasons (June to September) during 1941-90.